Political fallout from the Duffy affair: Experts weigh in

WATCH ABOVE: Prime Minister Harper’s spokesman is calling the behaviour described in RCMP charges against suspended Senator Mike Duffy as “disgraceful.” That’s as the opposition parties blame the charges on Harper, who appointed Duffy to the Senate. Vassy Kapelos reports.

OTTAWA — As the Senate expense scandal rages on, the Conservative brand has taken a beating: How does the booting of three Stephen Harper appointees from the Upper Chamber reflect on his judgement? Can his party still claim to be a strong fiscal manager?

With today’s news of the RCMP laying a whopping 31 charges against Sen. Mike Duffy, some wonder how much more damage will pile up — and whether it’s damaging enough to last until the 2015 election.

Of particular interest throughout the scandal has been the now-infamous $90,000 cheque passed to Duffy from Nigel Wright — Harper’s then-chief of staff — so the senator could quietly repay what he was suspected of owing taxpayers.

READ MORE: RCMP lay 31 charges including bribery against Mike Duffy

Opposition politicians have consistently pointed fingers at the prime minister, asking what he knew about that cheque, and when. Harper has maintained his innocence, denying any knowledge of the cheque before it became public through media reports.

While Duffy faces a laundry list of charges, the RCMP announced in April they won’t lay any on Wright.

So does that clear Harper and his Conservative colleagues? Not necessarily.

“While Wright appears to have been resolved of any criminal wrongdoing, that does not necessarily clear, shall we say, the Conservative way of doing politics on Parliament Hill,” said Dan Leger, a Halifax journalist who recently published a book on Duffy and the Senate scandal.

READ MORE: Nigel Wright celebrated by Tories as he exits tough year in Ottawa

“That way has been deeply called into question by these charges and by the whole Senate affair.”

And as Duffy’s case heads to court, Canadians may hear more about his dealings with Wright and the prime minister, Leger said. (RCMP haven’t said whether Wright will testify.)

While researching his book, the author sat down with Duffy at the senator’s cottage in PEI.

READ MORE: Six things we learned about the Mike Duffy investigation

“One of the first things he said to me was, ‘If I’m going to be charged, and this is going to go to court, I welcome that and am going to bring up every last shred of evidence I have,’” he recalled.

The suggestion that Duffy might make a big show out of the trial is not unfounded; while making a statement in the Senate last fall, where senators are immune to libel and defamation, Duffy dramatically revealed his version of the scandal in a voice befitting of a former broadcast journalist.

So fighting these charges in a public forum, away from the political fray, may be what Duffy is hoping for, said Stephen Azzi, professor of political management at Carleton University in Ottawa.

“Senator Duffy wants to fight these charges in the open. He thinks the more information that comes out about this, the better his case will be,” Azzi said. “Sen. Duffy is a savvy media operator. He knows how to use the media and he will use it to his advantage.”

Part of that strategy may be to implicate as many people as possible while he weaves his narrative, Azzi said.

The court proceedings will likely go on for a while, revealing details bit by bit. This means the scandal likely won’t be far from anyone’s attention for long — much to the detriment of the government, the professor added.

The timing of how all of this roles out is important, said Tim Powers, a vice-chairman at Summa Strategies and Conservative insider.

“We all know the judicial process is not a quick or rapid one,” he said Thursday. “When will the trial start? Will that have an impact on election time? All of those questions need to be answered.”

Some say the entire scandal, and specifically the charges against Duffy, could hurt Harper and his government. But Powers notes Wright was cleared, and only Duffy charged in connection to the $90,000 cheque.

Still, the embattled senator may air more dirty laundry, Powers said.

“I’m sure he’ll use his skills as someone who’s been a politician and a broadcaster to put forward the best case of defence he can, and that may mean trying to implicate other people,” he said. “The charges aren’t good for Duffy, they’re not good for the Senate in general, they’re not good for politics in general and they’re potentially problematic for the government, depending on how this plays out.”