TORONTO – The Liberals have pulled ahead and one polling expert is now predicting a repeat of the 2011 election – a minority Liberal government.
Wilfrid Laurier University professor Barry Kay aggregated polls conducted between May 14 and May 24 to come up with the seat projection.
He’s estimating the Liberals will form a minority government with 48 seats, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives will form the official opposition with 39 seats and the NDP will pick up 20.
Kay suggests Toronto and surrounding area will be the Liberals’ support base, with the party capturing 30 of a possible 40 seats in the region.
In Depth: Ontario Election 2014
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Polls conducted since May 1 have suggested widely different outcomes – from a Conservative majority to a Liberal government.
But Kay noted the polls conducted since May 14 show less variance and indicate a growing margin of support for the Liberals.
Not all polling firms track the intentions of likely voters, however. And as the 2011 election proved, most Ontarians don’t vote. Polls that have tracked likely voters have found a strong degree of Conservative support: Four out of the five polls have shown more likely voters are planning on voting for the Progressive Conservatives.
The latest poll however, conducted by Abacus Data on May 24, suggested an atypical Liberal lead among likely voters: 36 per cent compared to the Conservatives’ 33. That poll surveyed 1,000 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
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