WATCH: Russia doesn’t really need to invade Crimea: It’s already got a sizable military presence there. But Russia does have a lot at stake in the region.
*Ed. Note: This story was updated on Friday to include the most recent developments.
The world’s eyes are on Crimea, where pro-Russian sentiment is strong compared to the very anti-Russian sentiment that helped fuel three months of protests across Ukraine.
On Thursday, as Ukrainian lawmakers appointed former parliamentarian Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the new prime minister, gunmen reportedly seized government buildings in the Crimean capital of Simferopol.
READ MORE: Russia reportedly shelters Ukraine president; gunmen seize buildings in Crimea
Russia has a significant military force in Crimea, where its Black Sea naval fleet is based, and in recent days Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ordered military exercises along western border areas aimed at checking the “readiness of troops” and involving more than 150,000 soldiers.
On Friday, Ukraine’s interior minister said Russian troops took control of the two main airports in the strategic peninsula.
The Russian government said planned military training exercises have nothing to do with the ongoing political crisis in Ukraine, but there are concerns Russia could once again intervene militarily in a former Soviet-era state.
Raw video: Pro-Russia demonstrators unveil massive Russian flag in Crimea, Ukraine
It was only five-and a half years ago that Russia sent troops into one of its former republics – Georgia, on the other side of the Black Sea – in a battle over the breakaway Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In the months leading up to the five-day war in 2008, Georgia had amassed troops in the secessionist states, while Russia accrued peacekeeping troops on its side of the borders with the territories.
Russia said it was only readying its military to defend the territories if Georgia attacked, which it did on Aug. 7, 2008.
By the end of the conflict, 850 people died, including 67 Russian soldiers and 184 Georgian troops and police, a European Union investigation found.
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Experts familiar with the region say the stakes for all involved are much higher with the Ukraine crisis, particularly as pro-Russian sentiment in Crimea grows stronger.
“In a way, if anything, this could be a kind of Georgia situation magnified time 10 or 20 in terms of the stakes that are there, in terms of the number of people that are involved and in terms of the geopolitical stakes,” said Sahadeo, a specialist in Central Asia and the eastwards expansion of the European Union. “It’s a very delicate situation, even more so than Georgia.”
He said large swaths of Ukraine, not just Crimea, that could call on Russia to respond to the crisis.
More than 17 per cent of Ukraine’s 46 million people are ethnically Russian.
“It’s hard to know what’s off the table right now,” Sahadeo added. “It’s very notable… that we haven’t heard anything from Putin yet, directly. I think he, himself, doesn’t know what to do.”
But Shadeho said allowing ousted president Viktor Yanukovych – now wanted for the mass murder of anti-government protesters – to enter Russia is a sign the Kremlin is not willing to “let Ukraine drift away from them.”
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Sahedeo said there’s a potential for Russia to use Crimea as a sort of “lever for influence” because it has a large population that’s loyal to Russia and a major military presence. But he said it’s hard to imagine Russia would intervene militarily.
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Dr. Piotr Dutkiewicz, also a political science professor at Carleton University and the former director of the Institute of European and Russian Studies, said the situation is different than the 2008 conflict with Georgia because, first of all, the Georgian military attacked Russian peacekeepers and Russia responded.
“The situation in Ukraine is entirely different because the tensions are internal,” Dutkiewicz said.”
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Dutkiewicz doesn’t believe any party plans to attack in Crimea.
“I doubt very much that Russia will use any military force, in the case of Crimea,” he said. “For me, that chances of that are close to zero.”
He also said if Russia does get involved it may be to protect Ukraine’s Russian-speaking minority, possibly evacuating vulnerable people if the conflict escalates.
Dutkiewicz explained Russia has “legitimate security concerns” about its border with Ukraine, as a new Ukrainian government will certainly be more pro-Western than Yanukovych was.
A militarized Russian border could, in turn, provoke further tensions with NATO.
WATCH: NATO and US monitoring Russia’s activity near Ukraine
Regardless of who forms the new government – elections are set for May 25 – Ukraine is going to need a great deal of financial assistance to recover.
“The place is an economic basket case” Sahadeo said.
According to The Associated Press, analysts estimate the country will need between $20 billion and $25 billion for 2014 and 2015.
Dutkiewicz said swapping economic ties to Russia in favour of a Western orientation may not be so easy for Ukraine.
With files from The Associated Press
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