The uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war may leave parents worrying about whether Canada’s baby formula supply could be hit by price hikes, a weakening loonie or shortages following disruptions in recent years.
Canadian parents were in a bind not too long ago over infant formula shortages that were brought on by a U.S. plant closure in February 2022. Those shortages persisted for several months in 2022 and 2023.
The Retail Council of Canada told Global News this week that the trade war is going to have a “negative impact pretty quickly on Canadians’ access to food and groceries.”
The biggest price increases could be seen on unique goods that are mostly manufactured in the U.S., including children’s Tylenol, baby formula and diapers, said Matt Poirier, vice-president of federal government relations for the Retail Council of Canada.
And while baby formula itself isn’t on Canada’s list of counter-tariffs, the general economic pain caused by the U.S. trade war means it could become more expensive if imported from the U.S. at a time when many Canadian families are struggling with the cost of living, experts say.
“The one thing that is a bit of a wildcard is that if the Canadian dollar gets weaker as a result of the trade war, then any imported product will get more expensive, even if it’s not subject to tariffs,” said Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph.
“I think the federal government is being quite strategic in the way that they’re implementing tariffs to minimize the pain for Canadians while still putting pressure on the Americans, so I expect they’ll be sensitive to issues around infant formula.”
While the supply chains for these products have recovered since the shortages, tariffs could be “quite problematic for a lot of parents out there in Canada,” said Sylvian Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.
“If you add an extra 25 per cent on baby formula, that baby formula will likely become way more expensive, too expensive, which will force Health Canada’s hand in opening up the market to European exporters,” he said.
Get breaking National news
But while prices may increase, families relying on formula will have options.
On Tuesday, a sweeping 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods entering the U.S. went into effect as well as Canada’s counter-tariffs on $30 billion worth of American goods, with provinces issuing their own suites of measures.
Trump paused the tariffs on some, but not all, goods for one month on Thursday.
Following Trump’s reprieve, Canada delayed its second round of retaliatory tariffs on $125 billion worth of U.S. goods until April 2, but stock markets have been roiled by the uncertainty over recent days and fears of layoffs remain high ahead of two more rounds of U.S. tariffs set to hit in the coming weeks.
Where does Canada’s baby formula supply come from?
Most of Canada’s baby formula is currently imported from the U.S.
Out of the five companies making infant formula that are approved for sale by Health Canada, four are based out of the U.S.
These are Abbott Nutrition, Perrigo/Nestle/PBM, Reckitt/Mead Johnson and Nutricia.
In September, Canada opened its first baby formula production facility in Kingston, Ont.
Canada Royal Milk, a Chinese-based company, has been producing powdered milk products, but this new facility is focused on infant formula that is sold under the brand name Niuriss.
The Niuriss infant formula is made in Canada and can be bought online and in stores.
A tin of 700 grams of Niuriss costs $41.99, according to the company website.
Charlebois said it’s “probably the cheapest baby formula out there.”
Nutricia’s Necoate infant formula, which is already approved by Health Canada, is also manufactured in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands besides the U.S.
To alleviate the infant formula shortages in 2022-2023, Health Canada allowed the imports of new brands from other countries, including Australia, U.K., Poland, France and the Netherlands.
Von Massow said Canada is “not exclusively dependent on the U.S.” for baby formula.
He said since the shortages, Health Canada has approved a “wider range of products” for import and the supply chain has now become more resilient than it previously was.
“I think we’ve increased the resilience of formula supply chains as a result of those shortages we experienced,” he said.
Under an interim policy, Health Canada recommended that the Canadian Food Inspection Agency apply “its enforcement discretion to the importation and sale of certain infant formula, HMF, and metabolic products.”
That policy has been extended until the end of this year “to ensure market stability and continuity of care,” Health Canada said in December 2024.
As tariff uncertainty looms, von Massow said Canada is in a “reasonable shape” when it comes to its infant formula supply and offered some advice to parents who may be worried.
“In the short run, I don’t think infant formula is at particular risk due to this trade war,” von Massow said.
Comments