How much does changing coaches help?

Claude Noel is gone — in part — because of the Winnipeg Jets’ remarkable ineptitude over the last four games. They held a lead in all of those games, and lost all without earning a point. As of Monday morning, the Jets were 12 points out of the final playoff spot in the West.

When you fire a coach in sports, there’s a thought that there will be an immediate boost to the players. Guys will show up extra early, practice will be crisper, and the focus will be as sharp as it’s ever been because the players have gotten a closeup look at figurative mortality. Jets fans certainly hope that will be the case with the hiring of veteran coach Paul Maurice.

But is there an actual “bump” in performance after a coach is fired? Do teams perform better when a new coach comes in mid-season?

Excluding Maurice there are 29 other head coaches in the NHL right now. Eleven of them took their jobs in mid-season when another coach was fired. On average a team’s results do get better, but not by much.

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In the first five games after a firing, a team improves over its previous five by an average of 1.3 points. Over 10 games, they are 2.3 points better. Over 15, teams have seen an increase of 3.8 points.

For the Jets, none of the average increases would mean much:

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Even a four-point bump would mean the Jets earn 15 points in the next 15 games. And that’s not going to get them into the playoffs.

Of course, every team will hope for what the St. Louis Blues had when they hired veteran coach Ken Hitchcock in 2011. The Blues won four of their first five games and took 18 of the next 22 points. A run like that would go a long way to getting the Jets out of their hole.

Of the 11 firings we tracked, two teams got worse over five and 10 games (Ted Nolan in Buffalo and Craig Berube in Philadelphia, both this season). Both of them led their team to an improvement over 15 games.*

Maurice’s first game in charge will be tonight when the Jets host the Coyotes.

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FWIW #1: Of the 11 teams that fired a coach in mid-season, four won their first game post-firing.

FWIW #2: New Jets coach Maurice has one win and two losses in debut games with new teams.

FWIW #3: Maurice’s teams have earned 1.002 points per game he has coached. Claude Noel’s teams: 1.015

*It should be acknowledged that regression to the mean probably plays a part in these teams’ improvement. Teams that fire a coach may be on a bad run that is not indicative of the quality of their team — i.e. they’re better than their results. Statistically speaking, that would indicate results that move them toward their long-term expectation are likely to follow.