The Calgary municipal election is in six weeks (October 21, 2013), but there is a distinct lack of buzz around town. This is both unsurprising, but, at the same time, still disturbing. Political science research shows that voter turnout in municipal elections is much lower than both federal and provincial ones. Municipal election voter turnout is even more dismal when it lacks either a competitive mayoral race or an intriguing plebiscite vote.
In 2010, Naheed Nenshi defeated Ric McIver and Barb Higgins in the most competitive mayor’s race in decades and voter turnout was, for a municipal race, an astounding 53%.
There was similarly higher voter turnout in other competitive mayor’s races.
The 2001 election, which saw Dave Bronconnier defeat Bev Longstaff, Richard Magnus, and Ray Clark to become mayor, had a turnout of 38%. In contrast, when Dave Bronconnier and Al Duerr ran largely unopposed in 2005 and 1995, voter turnout was an embarrassing 19% and 23% respectively.
CLICK HERE to view Global Calgary’s special 2013 municipal election site
Even if the mayor’s race is uninteresting, voter turnout for a municipal election can be enhanced if there is a contentious plebiscite on the ballot. In 1998, voter turnout was 45% even though Al Duerr was re-elected with 73%. The reason for the higher voter turnout was the existence of two important plebiscites: banning VLTs and water fluoridation. It was these issue-specific votes that drove people to the polls.
The problem with the expectations of low voter turnout for the 2013 election is that there are still 14 Councillors (formerly called Aldermen), seven Calgary Public School Board Trustees, and seven Calgary Catholic School Board Trustees on the ballot. The Mayor only has one vote on Council, and it damages democracy if there is a poor voter turnout for the other 14 votes on Council.
There are also plenty of important issues that will face a new City Council: secondary suites, property tax rates, flood response and rebuilding policy, urban sprawl vs high density, etc. These issues should not be determined by a Council that was elected with only minimal participation by the electorate.
Over the next six weeks, I will be writing more blog posts for Global’s website, but I hope that one I will write after the election will be a mea culpa on why I thought voter turnout was going to be so low. Citizens of Calgary, prove me wrong!’
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