Will Cuba’s new leader differ from the Castros and will the change affect relations with Canada?

Cuban leader Raul Castro will officially step down Thursday, with Miguel Diaz-Canel seeming to be a lock to replace him.

While Diaz-Canel represents radical change for Cuba in that his surname is not Castro and he is almost 30 years younger than his predecessor, not much is expected to change with regards to Cuban policy. He has been Castro’s right-hand man since 2013 when he was made the country’s No. 1 vice-president (there are five in total.)

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“He’s made it very clear that he supports the revolutionary ideology,” Dalhousie University Cuba expert Emily Kirk explained. “He’s a vociferous advocate for the Cuban communist party and it’s very unlikely that he’s going to change anything dramatically.”

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She does not expect the warm relationship with Canada to see much change either.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated Thursday that the transition of power will have little impact on Cuba’s relationship with Canada, adding the welfare of the country’s residents remains the primary concern.

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“Canada has a long-standing relationship with Cuba in which we’ve been very clear about our concerns on human rights and we will continue to work in development and in support and aid to the people of Cuba,” said Trudeau.

“We always, in any case, want the best for the Cuban people.”

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Trained as an electrical engineer, Diaz-Canel embraces technology and while some say he appears socially liberal, in a video of a Communist Party meeting which was surprisingly made public in 2016, Diaz-Canel expressed a series of orthodox positions that included somberly pledging to shutter some independent media and labelling some European embassies as outposts of foreign subversion.

However, the soon-to-be Cuban leader has also defended academics and bloggers who have been targeted by hardliners, which has led some to think he may be open to more dramatic changes.

“For Cuba, not a lot is going to change,” Kirk said. “People seem to believe that with this new president, overnight Cuba’s going to change dramatically and become capitalist and all these changes are going to occur but it’s unlikely anything major is going to occur once Diaz-Canel is the president because of his ideology.”

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Kirk said Cubans have told her that Diaz-Canel is expected to continue the path of Castro.

“While he’s going to maintain what are referred to as the gifts of the revolution, health care and education, it’s believed that he has the vision, I suppose, to update the revolution,” Kirk said.

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Plus, while Castro is stepping down as the official leader of the party, he is not going very far.

“He will likely be the first secretary of the party,” Kirk said.

Most Cubans know their first vice-president as an uncharismatic figure who until recently maintained a public profile so low it was virtually nonexistent. That image changed slightly this year as state media placed an increasing spotlight on Diaz-Canel’s public appearances, including remarks to the press last month that included his promise to make Cuba’s government more responsive to its people.

“We’re building a relationship between the government and the people here,” he said then after casting a ballot for members of the National Assembly. “The lives of those who will be elected have to be focused on relating to the people, listening to the people, investigating their problems and encouraging debate.”

Diaz-Canel has been brought in to make changes, but it is unlikely he will.

“I think the significance of him being the first non-Castro cannot be understated but equally reports seem to centre on him being an entirely different president when it’s been made clear through his entire career with the Communist Party that he’s a staunch revolutionary,” Kirk said. “So while it’s been sensationalized as a ‘Cuba without a Castro’ which is undoubtedly historically significant.”

*With files from Reuters and the Associated Press