Despite the shock the attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils left behind, experts say the Islamic State’s deteriorating territory makes attacks like this one — and other insurgent attacks in Europe over the past few months — more predictable.
Twin terror attacks took place Thursday in Spain’s Catalonia region, leaving left 14 people dead and over 100 people injured, just a few days before police foiled a plan by a 12-member Islamic-extremist cell to stage two more vehicle attacks using explosives.
These are just a few of the many attacks that University of Toronto Global Justice Lab senior researcher Aisha Ahmad claims are directly related to ISIS’ losing position on the battlefield.
“We have seen case after case around the world…what happens is when these groups lose territory they immediately shift to soft targeting — from high-end attacks [to] low-cost attacks…We have all known that as Mosul falls this is going to happen.”
After an attack on civilians such as the one in Barcelona, regions are often left wondering whether extremist ideologies are festering beneath the surface of their communities. Ahmad denies that any Spaniards fell victim to this. The same can be said for the back-to-back attacks in London that took place a few months ago, which prompted several probes into where these ideologies originated and moves by major social media firms to quell these notions.
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Ahmad explained that despite a major terror attack in Madrid almost 13 years ago that left almost 200 people dead, Spain is not a hotbed for extremist activities, but rather one of many bustling tourist attractions in Europe susceptible to attacks as ISIS struggles to remain ideologically relevant. To distract from losing territory in areas where the Islamic State used to be dominant, the terrorist organization has shifted to orchestrating or even simply encouraging less expensive, high-profile attacks to create the illusion of victory.
For this reason, Ahmad adds that even if ISIS had no direct impact on the attack, the group would likely assume responsibility.
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“When they lost Mosul, when they are losing territory and ground, in the places that they are supposed to be dominant, then they start to look irrelevant,” Ahmad explained. “They start to look like they are yet another rag-tag insurgent group, and so they lose a tremendous amount of legitimacy as they lose territory…instead of ruling over territory and government, which is extensive and requires a lot of capabilities, they pull back from territory intentionally and shift from heavy taxation and government activities to insurgent-style and terrorist-style attacks.”
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According to a CNBC report, the Islamic State has lost almost two-thirds of the land it once controlled, which has put a significant dent in its revenue stream. The report cites a study by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies which states that the Islamic State’s funding channels are beginning to run dry, making it even more difficult to maintain territory.
University of Ottawa international affairs professor Costanza Musu added that due to persistent attacks of this kind in Europe, law enforcement should be on high alert in busy tourist areas or other spots where crowds congregate. According to CNN, Spain has been experiencing a tourism boom in recent years.
“They tend to target soft targets. Places where people congregate, where people meet to look at fireworks or places that are hot spots of tourism… Spain, per se, and Barcelona, is as much a soft target as Nice might have been, or other targets. Obviously, Spain is not a stranger to violent attacks: you might remember in 2004, attacks with bombs are a very different kind of attack… There are thousands and thousands of places where citizens congregate, and the point of terrorism is to target civilians,” Musu said.
Both experts agree that these factors collectively may have led to the attacks in Spain, though it’s still unclear whether the perpetrators were independent actors or more directly involved with ISIS factions on the round in Syria and Iraq.
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