Prime Minster Justin Trudeau’s travel this summer has been anything but spread evenly across the country – with far more visits around Quebec and Ontario than anywhere else – which could, strategists say, hint at the Liberal’s plans for the next election.
Since the House of Commons started its summer break on June 21, the prime minister has spent six days in Quebec with stops in 13 towns and cities, and 4 days in Ontario (excluding Ottawa) with stops in six places.
Today, he’s scheduled to start his day in Kenora, Ont., before heading to Winnipeg, marking the first time he’s stepped foot in Manitoba this summer.
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Trudeau has yet to make any stops in Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan, the territories or British Columbia, though he’s expected to tour the fire damage in B.C. next week.
Across the rest of the country, Trudeau has spent two days in Nova Scotia, one day split between P.E.I. and New Brunswick and an afternoon at the Calgary Stampede in Alberta.
Trudeau has also spent six days in Europe and one in the United States, and eight days working in Ottawa. All numbers above exclude Trudeau’s personal days.
The discrepancy in his travel, say political strategists, could signal where he and his team believe they have the most – and least – to gain as the Liberal government heads into the second half of its majority mandate.
“I think they think they’re doing pretty well,” said Jason Lietaer, president of public relations group Enterprise Canada, and a former Conservative strategist.
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As it stands, the Liberals hold 40 seats in Quebec, while the NDP holds 16 and the Conservatives 12.
In Ontario, the Liberals hold 80 seats compared to the Conservatives’ 33.
The Liberals swept the Atlantic provinces in the 2015 election, and hold the most seats in B.C., though the Conservatives still reign in Alberta, holding 28 of the province’s 34 ridings.
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Even though there’s room for the Liberals to grow in B.C., the fact the province was in an election and then consumed by wildfires has put the province out of commission for much of Parliament’s summer break.
In the Conservative stronghold of Alberta, meanwhile, Trudeau made a last-minute schedule change to allow for an afternoon in Calgary during the city’s Stampede celebrations. (Those in the province, any many outside its borders, still haven’t forgotten Trudeau’s flub on Canada Day, when he neglected to name-drop Alberta during his speech. Whether that had anything to do with the sudden addition to Trudeau’s itinerary wasn’t clear.)
Asked why Trudeau’s travel has been concentrated in Quebec and Ontario — and whether there’s an intention to travel to the North, Newfoundland and Labrador or Saskatchewan — the Prime Minister’s Office said only the prime minister’s been travelling the country, “spending time in different communities, meeting directly with Canadians, hearing from them about their concerns and ideas.”
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Longtime strategists see it differently.
“He’s at a high-water mark in Alberta, so there probably aren’t more seats for the Liberals, and there are literally none to gain in the Atlantic provinces,” Lietaer said. “I think there’s a danger of taking the East for granted, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Eastern tour next summer.”
Greg MacEachern, a former Liberal strategist and current senior vice-president of government relations at Environics Communications, applauded the prime minister for his stops in the East so far this summer.
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One of Trudeau’s days in Nova Scotia was spent marching in the Halifax Pride Parade – an itinerary stop MacEachern noted isn’t typical for a prime minister.
“With a lot of things this government has done, the subtext is always ‘we’re not like the previous government,’” he said. “And focusing travel on rural areas, like in Quebec, and the Maritimes sends the message that they’re accessible.”
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