France could be waking up on Monday morning with one foot out Europe’s door, says a former adviser to presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and if that happens the repercussions will be felt across the Atlantic.
“We are potentially witnessing a historical inflection point,” said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who served on the U.S. National Security Council during the Obama and Clinton administrations.
“If (Marine) Le Pen wins and you see this tilt in the populist direction (in the United States), in France, and in the United Kingdom, I think it’s going to very hard to keep liberal democratic countries on an even keel.”
That, in turn, he predicted, would provide a new opening for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who “is very determined to fragment the West.”
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France is set to begin choosing its next president on Sunday. The far-right Le Pen, whose hardline stance on immigration has proven particularly popular with young people, has gained momentum in the campaign’s dying weeks.
Among other things, the National Front leader is promising a Brexit-style EU referendum in France within six months of taking office.
“If (a French exit) were to happen alongside the British exit from the EU, I think it’s safe to say that Europe would not survive,” Kupchan told The West Block‘s Vassy Kapelos.
“The project of European integration that was birthed in the bitter years after World War II would come to an end.”
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As for the notion that Canada can count on an integrated Europe as a partner on the global stage, “that idea would unfortunately go out the window.”
Just a few points now separate the four candidates in the French polls, but because the election uses a two-round system, one of the contenders must secure over 50 per cent of the vote to win on Sunday. If none of the four manages it, the top two will face off in a second vote on May 7.
Le Pen is attractive to French voters for several reasons, Kupchan said, chief among them her views on immigration and open borders during a time when hundreds of thousands of migrants from Africa and the Middle East are moving north into Europe.
“A second key issue is stagnation,” he added. “Basically very high youth unemployment in France and in other EU countries. People feel like their future is bleaker than their past, especially in working class areas.”
That situation will sound very familiar to voters in the U.S., he said. President Donald Trump rode that very same populist sentiment to victory last fall.
“Nobody expected him to win, nobody expected Brexit to happen,” Kupchan noted. “Nobody really thinks that Le Pen is going to win, but she could win.”
Watch the full interview with Charles Kupchan above.
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