The day after a meeting with British Prime Minister David Cameron, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to be in doubt about whether Britain would leave the European Union at all.
Britain was reluctant to formally trigger its exit from the EU because it wasn’t sure whether trade agreements would be in place at the end of the two-year transition period, Kerry told a conference in Colorado Tuesday.
Britain and the EU would eventually agree “… or they don’t decide to get out,” Kerry said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen.”
British voters narrowly decided to leave the European Union in a referendum last Thursday.
Cameron won’t start the process of British withdrawal, Kerry said.
“He feels powerless to go out and start negotiating something he doesn’t believe in, and he has no idea how he would do it. Nor do most of the people who voted to do it.”
Cameron, who announced plans to resign the morning after the election, has said he wants a new Conservative leader in place by October. Several of the leading contenders to replace him opposed Brexit, through one, Stephen Crabb, promised to lead Britain out of the EU if he won the leadership.
READ MORE: Brexit: 4 scenarios eyed to keep Britain in the EU despite the vote to leave
Kerry, however, said there were several scenarios under which Brexit doesn’t happen and Britain ends up staying in the EU.
“I think there are a number of ways. I don’t, as Secretary of State, want to throw them out today. I think that would be a mistake.”
“I can’t sit here and tell you I know what is going to happen.”
Since the referendum result, observers have suggested several ways that Britain’s exit from the EU could be avoided. Another election, won by a party committed to staying, could give the decision democratic legitimacy. It’s possible Scotland’s consent could be required, something Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear won’t be forthcoming.
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So British leaders are both unwilling and unprepared to actually pull the trigger on Brexit. The most prominent Leave campaigner in a major party, Conservative Boris Johnson, wrote Monday that Brexit “will not come in any great rush.”
In any case, with the leadership of the Conservative party in transition and that of the opposition Labour party in a public and spectacular crisis, it’s not the time for Britain to start making major, irreversible decisions at a negotiating table. In the moment, it’s hard to see what they can do, except play for time.
Markets, on the other hand, hate uncertainty.
“If they don’t start the process, then there’s uncertainty in the marketplace, uncertainty in Europe, and a lot of people get angrier and angrier,” Kerry said.
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And Brussels has made it clear that Britain’s apparent lack of a plan for what would follow a “Yes” vote on Brexit — and its inability to come up with one because of the leadership crisis at Westminster — is not its problem.
On Tuesday, EU officials were pressuring Britain to start the process of leaving, to end the increasingly awkward standoff.
“It is clear what the British people want and we should act accordingly,” said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
EU Council President Donald Tusk said Tuesday the bloc’s leaders want U.K. exit plans to “to be specified as soon as possible.”
Tusk said the leaders respected the will of British voters in deciding to leave and understood that the U.K. would trigger the exit clause at some point in the near future.
Despite the tensions since Thursday’s referendum, Tusk said the summit talks with Cameron “were calm and pleasant.”
Juncker added: “We don’t have months to meditate, we have to act.”
With files from the Associated Press
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