We are now in the final hours of the longest federal election campaign in Canada in more than a century. It has been 11 weeks and the lead keeps changing hands. Each of the three main parties has, at one point or several, led based on opinion polls.
But most recently, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party are apparently in front.
Our latest poll, conducted by Ipsos for Global News, has Trudeau stretching his lead slightly among decided voters – now commanding 38 per cent of respondents.
The Conservatives are still in second, at 31 per cent, and the NDP are third with 22 per cent.
Nationally, the Green Party are at 4 per cent along with the Bloc Quebecois.
The survey was taken between Oct. 15 and 17 and just over 2,500 eligible voters were sampled.
“The thing about a 78-day election is you just couldn’t have possibly predicted all the twists and turns that we’ve seen along the way and I don’t think that if you told us 77 days ago we’d be looking at a Prime Minister Trudeau 2.0, people would have believed you,” said Joshua Labove, a political analyst from Simon Fraser University.
“But it’s looking quite probable at his hour.”
IN DEPTH: Full coverage of the Federal Election 2015
Labove said B.C. is, as some have described it, the “Bermuda Triangle” of political races as it still could go any way.
“I think B.C. matters because when politicians come to B.C., they can’t be single-issue candidates,” he said. “We care about affordable like folks care about that in Toronto, we care about resource politics, like they care about that in Alberta, we care about affordable education, like they care about that in Quebec. You can’t just come to B.C. and try out one special gimme. We’re not simple voters like maybe other provinces had their real, sort of, ideological thing they hang their hats on.”
“When you come to B.C. we make stronger politicians out of the federal candidates.”
Labove said there are some swing ridings in B.C., such as Vancouver-Granville and Burnaby North-Seymour, along with the presence of the Green Party.
“I think this campaign has been about trying to win,” said Labove. “I think one thing we will say, no matter who wins tomorrow, whether it is another mandate for Stephen Harper, is that this campaign had the Conservatives trying lots of tricks. Trying lots of different ways to campaign. Campaigning for Stephen Harper had been a fairly predictable and fairly rote, stay the course, Economist-in-Chief, kind of sweater-vest style politics.”
“As late as last night, politicking and rallying in Etobicoke with the Fords, suggests that the Conservatives, just like every other party, has at some point tried to embrace the more showy sides of politics.”
Labove said it has been a long and exhausting campaign.
“Change was probably the most iterated word over the last 78 days.”
Global BC will be starting our coverage on BC1 at 4 p.m. and then on Global at 5:30 p.m. after the Early News. We will also have full results and up-to-the-minute updates on Globalnews.ca/bc.
WATCH: Election night coverage preview
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