Questionable reliability of opinion polls hangs over Alberta election

WATCH: Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson and the Ottawa Citizen’s parliamentary bureau chief Mark Kennedy discuss the possibility of an NDP breakthrough in Tuesday’s Alberta election.

Voters in Alberta this week seem poised to unseat the Progressive Conservatives for the first time since 1971 — or is this all a 2012 redux?

If the polls are to be believed, Alberta’s New Democrats will take over the legislature. But to anyone who was paying attention in 2012, the last time the province had a vote, the polls could raise a bit of skepticism.

Quick refresher: Danielle Smith’s Wildrose party was leading the polls for much of the campaign. As a result, many believed she’d become the next premier, by a long shot. Come election day, however, her party won a mere 17 seats. Alison Redford’s PCs won 61, for a net loss of only five seats. Not much of a tide turning.

READ MORE: In depth, live coverage of the Alberta election

Fast forward to 2015, and recent polls are showing 41.8 per cent for the NDP, 26 for Wildrose, and the once mighty PC Alberta Party down to 20.7 per cent. Putting those numbers into seat projections suggests 52 for the NDP, 22 for the Wildrose and 11 for the PCs.

“People are looking at these polls, going ‘holy cow! WTF?! What’s going on here?” said Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thompson on The West Block With Tom Clark.

“The question is, are these polls real? And if they’re real, will this hold out till Tuesday?”

POLL: Most Albertans think minority government would be best election outcome

A lot of people seem to believe the numbers won’t hold until the vote on May 5, Thompson said.

There’s a strong contingent of Albertans who are “grumpy,” he said, as a result of Premier Jim Prentice’s tough budget that raised taxes and cut spending followed by his decision to call the election a year early.

“People are grumpy at the budget, and they’re grumpy with the PCs being in power for 44 years, and they’re grumpy with Prentice for being a bit of a cynic by calling the election when the opposition wasn’t ready,” Thompson said.

While it remains to be seen whether the polls will translate into votes this time around, it’s important for the public to not forget that change can — and often does — happen, said Ottawa Citizen parliamentary bureau chief Mark Kennedy.