Economists were braced for job losses of 20,000 in February

The Canadian economy shed roughly 1,000 jobs last month – a number that was a far better reading than what the majority of economy experts were publicly calling for. Privately, the numbers may have been celebrated with a toast, or at least a collective sigh of relief.

Indeed, the actual number some were anticipating Statistics Canada to report last week – the so-called “whisper” number – was far larger than the consensus call of a net loss of 5,000 positions. Some feared the actual number was in the order of 20,000 jobs lost — or more.

“The February employment report was weak, but not nearly as bad as feared,” BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes said Monday morning. “The whisper number was in the 20,000 range, while some were looking for a far larger decline.”

The economic shock created by plunging oil prices finally turned up in the monthly numbers, economists said, with Alberta’s unemployment rate soaring close to a full percentage point to 5.3 per cent. The resource sector as a whole (where energy jobs are counted) declined by 17,000 jobs.

MORE: Complete coverage — plunging oil

And there was related weakness elsewhere, like in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, Reitzes said.

“Losses in other provinces may have been driven to some extent by migrant workers returning home after work dried up in Alberta,” the BMO economist said. “That could explain the losses in natural resources in B.C. and Nova Scotia.”

Far from over

The labour market’s relative outperformance last month followed on a similarly better-than-expected January, when more than 30,000 jobs were added. But experts suggest the strength won’t – can’t – last.

Economists at the Bank of Canada and elsewhere suggested earlier this month more layoffs loom in the first half of the year as additional resource jobs are terminated. Oil’s renewed weakness – touching six-year lows to start this week – should ensure employment growth is strained in the oil patch awhile longer, experts say.

MORE: ‘The party is over’ say laid-off energy workers 

The ranks of the jobless will also swell with retail workers as Target Canada winds up operations, a move affecting 17,000 or so store personnel.

Those factors will apply plenty of upward pressure on the jobless rate, which ticked two tenths of a percentage point higher last month, to 6.8 per cent.

“We’re likely headed higher on that measure as the blow from oil is more fully felt in Canadian jobs figures,” CIBC economist Nick Exarhos said.

WATCH: February numbers show Alberta lost thousands of jobs. Most jobs were in the energy sector, but retail, wholesale and manufacturing are also feeling the chill. Doug Vaessen reports.