Watch above: predicting the CFL division winners
SASKATOON – A computer program being used on the CFL’s website is not giving the Saskatchewan Roughriders much of a chance to win the West Division even though the man who designed it, Keith Willoughby, is a long time Riders fan.
Willoughby is the associate dean of research and academics at the Edwards School of Business at the University of Saskatchewan.
He’s designed a computer model that the CFL is hosting on its website.
For the Riders, the model currently gives them a 2.94 per cent chance of winning the West. For Willoughby, it’s a painful conclusion.
“It hurts me, being a passionate member of Rider Nation, and a season ticket holder,” Willoughby told Global Saskatoon’s Morning News.
Right now the model is giving the Calgary Stampeders a 94 per cent chance to win the west. And in the east it is giving the Tiger-Cats a 59 per cent chance to take the East Division.
He says there’s a reason the computer model is not giving the Riders a bigger chance. The model looks at the margin of victory – or defeat – in assessing a team.
“Right now the Riders, when they do good, when they win games they win by a narrow margin,” said Willoughby. “And when they lose they lose by a lot, so unfortunately the model has no love for the Riders.”
He says the model is also based on how teams have done so far in the season, so as the year advances the model gets more accurate.
According to the model, the Riders chances are going downhill, from 7 per cent a few weeks ago to less than 3 per cent.
“It’s not painting a very rosy picture.”
Willoughby said he started the program because he’s a long time football fan. He was looking for a way to combine his love of the game with his teaching at the U of S.
“A lot of undergraduate students approach statistics with fear and loathing,” he said. “What I wanted to do is put together a computer model that showed them that you can use analytics and data to try to capture really interesting situations.”
Willoughby said he first approached the CFL about the program a year ago. And after Labour Day this fall, the CFL put the simulation program on its website.
He’s hoping to refine the program for next year. Right now, he said, it gives all games equal weight. He’d like to tweak it to give more weight to more recent games – as that’s likely a more realistic way of showing how a team will do.
And eventually he’s hoping the model can be used by teams to make decisions.
“What I’d like to do is build a way to try to examine player contributions in the CFL,” he said.
“What’s a player worth, what’s the best thing to do at a certain point in the season who should a team sign if they are looking for a free agent … almost like what moneyball does for major league baseball.”
Comments