The future of Scotland as part of the United Kingdom is uncertain, with poll numbers putting the vote for independence slightly ahead of support for remaining unified.
While the respective sides rally the masses ahead of today’s vote, scotch drinkers around the globe are waiting anxiously to see what will happen to the price of their beloved single malts.
“I wouldn’t expect a ‘Yes’ vote to change our world very much, said Rob Carpenter, co-founder of the Canadian branch of the Scotch Malt Whisky Society.
Carpenter told Global News he expected an independent Scotland would be equally, if not more, supportive of its best-known export, adding it shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the price of the casks of whisky the Calgary-based group imports for its members.
He explained Canadians aren’t paying for any hefty tariffs on scotch imports and, according to the Canadian government, that should remain the same if there’s a “Yes” vote.
“We can confirm that whiskies are already and would continue to be imported tariff-free, regardless of free trade agreements in place,” Caitlin Workman, a spokesperson for the Dept. of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, told Global News in an email.
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Canadian Scotch drinkers, you can breathe a sigh of relief for now. But, there are other repercussions a “Yes” vote could have on the industry.
Carpenter may be right about an independent Scottish government being a fervent supporter of the scotch industry. But the industry itself isn’t so sure separating from the U.K. is the best option.
The Scotch industry in the U.K., exports about £4 billion (CDN $7.17 billion) worth of scotch annually, the Edinburgh-based Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) told Global News. Canada imported more than $128.6 million worth of scotch in 2013, according to numbers from Statistics Canada, with Ontario, Alberta and Quebec being the largest markets.
“There’s more risk with independence than opportunities. … That’s not a political view. That’s very much based on consulting with businesses,” said Rosemary Gallagher, spokesperson for SWA.
The association represents, promotes and protects about 90 per cent of the scotch industry around the world and the approximately 35,000 people it employs.
Although the Canadian government said its trade agreements would stand, that’s not a sure thing for other nations.
READ MORE: Scottish referendum — What could change or stay the same?
She said the industry could also face hurdles from the loss of the U.K.’s network of embassies.
“We work quite closely with the embassies in those markets,” she said of the 270 locations with British embassies and consulates.
A report in the Telegraph indicated the Scottish government, if it gains independence, intends to open between 70 and 90 embassies, but scotch is exported to about 200 markets globally.
In an email sent to Global News last week, Scotch distributor Diageo, which manages global behemoth scotch brands such as Johnnie Walker and Glenlivet, said the decision lies in the hands of Scottish voters.
But, it shares the SWA’s concerns about exports and trade agreements, adding the debate over what currency an independent Scotland will use is another source of concern.
The U.K. government and the Bank of England have warned it’s not in favour of an independent Scotland using the British pound and it could take years for the country to gain membership to the European Union and adopt the less-than-stable Euro (if that was desired).
Other options would be establishing a new currency, reverting back to the pound Scots of 307 years ago, or continue using the British pound unofficially —something that won’t sit well with the U.K. or the EU.
“The nature of an independent Scotland’s currency remains unclear, and self-evidently this could affect our exports, management of supply chains, pricing, and competitiveness,” SWA Chief Executive David Frost said in a statement.
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