Quebec party leaders set to face off in first debate

WATCH: Elysia Bryan-Baynes was at the debate and reports on how each of the leaders performed

MONTREAL – As the Quebec election nears the halfway mark, voters will get their first look tonight at the party leaders side by side.

Parti Quebecois chief Pauline Marois and her Liberal rival Philippe Couillard are locked in a close race, while Francois Legault’s Coalition Avenir Quebec and Quebec Solidaire are a distant third and fourth, respectively.

The 8 p.m. French-language debate is the first of two before the April 7 vote. In the past, about half of the province has tuned in to leaders debates, making it an opportunity to set the agenda for the rest of the campaign.

So, how much can a debate swing the momentum?

“I think it’s probably exaggerated to expect a great deal of movement, because opinion seems to be fairly solid for the two main parties,” said Pierre Martin, a political scientist at the University of Montreal.

“But of course, when you’re on the line between a minority and a majority, even small movement can have a big effect.”

To this point, the campaign hasn’t gone the way most expected.

It was supposed to be about the PQ’s proposed charter of values. But much of the focus so far has been on star candidate Pierre Karl Peladeau and the possibility of another referendum.

READ MORE: PQ leader envisions sovereign Quebec keeping the dollar, having seat at Bank of Canada

The media mogul’s decision to join the PQ, which the party hoped would shore up its economic credentials, has proven controversial.

With polls suggesting the PQ’s popularity is slipping, Marois has tried to steer the debate away from sovereignty onto sturdier ground, like the proposed charter.

On Wednesday, the party released an ad featuring Bernard Drainville, the minister responsible for the plan, declaring the PQ is the only party that can pass the charter of values.

READ MORE: A vote for the Parti Quebecois is a vote for the charter

There could be more of the same during the debate.

“That’s the biggest tool right now in the PQ’s arsenal and they haven’t used it much. One of the reasons they went to an election now is because they were doing so well with the charter,” said Martin Papillon, a professor at the University of Ottawa.

In Papillon’s view, there’s a big difference between Drainville pushing the charter and the PQ leader defending it herself, during the debate.

“In a campaign like this, the focus is really on the leaders,” the political scientist said.

“In the debate, she is going to be the focus, and she is going to be the one that not only defends it, but promotes it.”

READ MORE: Private companies welcome to implement Quebec’s charter of values: Marois

Marois will also be seeking to remind voters that, not so long ago, the Liberals were linked to a number of corruption scandals.

She’ll try to make the case that not much has changed since then, he said.

Watch: PQ on the attack over Porter connections

For Couillard, the debate will be his first as Liberal leader, giving him a chance to connect with the voting public.

To this point, he has been hammering away at the idea that a vote for the PQ means a vote for another referendum.

READ MORE: Liberal leader takes aim at the Parti Quebecois and sovereignty

Analysts expect more of the same during the debate.

“He might be planning to highlight the sovereignty issue, and he will, but you cannot do it throughout the debate,” Martin said.

Couillard could also be planning to raise ethical questions of his own.

There has been little talk so far that the PQ’s snap election meant Marois’ husband, Claude Blanchet, avoided having to testify before a parliamentary committee regarding an alleged deal with the FTQ.

READ MORE: Marois attacked on ethics

All this talk of a referendum has left Legault’s Coalition, which promises to set aside the national question to focus on economic issues, struggling to get his message across.

The debate will give Legault another chance to get out his message promoting smaller government and job-creation.

Watch: CAQ leader plans to ‘test’ Couillard at debate

Polls suggest voters worried about another referendum may have shifted their support to Couillard – and he could be Legault’s chief target during the debate.

Meanwhile, with Quebec Solidaire climbing in the polls, spokesperson Francoise David could face tougher questions than she did during the debates in 2012, when many observers felt she came out on top.

“There were no expectations last time. This time there’s more expectations,” Papillon said.

He said Quebec Solidaire threatens to steal away votes from left-leaning PQ members unhappy with Peladeau’s candidacy and party’s shift to the right.

Quebec Solidaire is also the only party that has been able to articulate a clear argument against the PQ’s proposed values charter, he said.