Kiss the playoffs goodbye Jets fans

I hate to say it, but the numbers tell me the Jets are done. They have 15 games remaining and nearly zero chance of making the playoffs.

Since the NHL eliminated ties, the average number of points to get the eighth playoff spot has been 91.

If that was to hold true this year, the Jets would need 22 points in the final 15 games. Remember that they earned 23 over Paul Maurice’s remarkable first 15 games in charge.

What makes earning 22 points unlikely is the how good the Jets’ final 15 opponents will be. They include an unenviable swing through California where Anaheim, San Jose and L.A. are firmly in playoff spots.

Thirteen teams they will face, starting with tonight’s game versus the Rangers, have better records than the Jets. And on average their opponents are six points better than the ones they played in Maurice’s first 15 games (all records and point totals through Friday morning). That does not bode well.

What’s even worse for Jets fans is the rarity of a team coming from multiple points behind to make the playoffs.

And perhaps worst of all, while we know the Jets are five points back of Dallas, the Stars have played two fewer games. So at this moment we don’t know if the Jets have to make up five, six, seven, eight or nine points in these final 15 games.

Consider the last 10 full NHL seasons. Of the teams in playoff positions with 15 games remaining, 70 of 80 made the playoffs. Of the 10 that were not in a playoff spot with 15 games to go, just three were more than a single point back. And only twice did they have to leapfrog another team to get there.

¥ Washington was 1 point back of the division lead       *Lockout-shortened season

I separated out Washington’s remarkable comeback last season, since it was a 48-game season.

Vancouver is the only team to have done relatively equal to what the Jets will require. They went 12-2-1 down the stretch to get past Dallas. And you’ll notice they were in ninth, meaning there was no team between themselves and the eighth-place team.  The Jets have to leapfrog Phoenix and Vancouver to challenge Dallas.

It doesn’t look good.

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FWIW:  The Jets have lost five in a row, which is pretty terrible. If you consider the 20 games under Paul Maurice, they’ve earned 26 points. That’s equal to 106.6 points over a full season. That’s slightly above the average number to finish second in the conference. Results are all about perspective.